EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 27, 2026

Will "Bully - Ye" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$556.67

Liquidity

$2.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-14.0pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 26, 2026, 00:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 23h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  • 3

    Expiry in 23h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 23 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 23.2h

    HIGH
  • 00:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 23h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -20.7pp at 2d ago (to 0¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · -20.7pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -18.4pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -11.9pp → 0¢
  • 3d ago · -9.2pp → 0¢
  • 3d ago · -8.9pp → 0¢
  • 3d ago · -9.0pp → 0¢
  • 3d ago · -12.8pp → 0¢
  • 3d ago · -9.1pp → 0¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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