Will "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 2?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 2¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 31h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Expiry in 31h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

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Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 2, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.