OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will either Tate brother be arrested by April 30?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$249.86

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:23
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1565.6h

    LOW
  • 18:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).

Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:23 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 17:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 16:00 · -5.0pp → 7¢
  • 15:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 14:00 · -3.5pp → 6¢
  • 12:00 · -5.0pp → 7¢
  • 10:00 · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 08:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 06:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 05:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 20:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 19:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -3.5pp → 9¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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