Will either Tate brother be arrested by April 30?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$249.86
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1565.6h
- 18:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:23 · -3.0pp → 7¢
- 17:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
- 16:00 · -5.0pp → 7¢
- 15:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
- 14:00 · -3.5pp → 6¢
- 12:00 · -5.0pp → 7¢
- 10:00 · -4.0pp → 7¢
- 08:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 06:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 05:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 20:00 · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 19:00 · -3.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.5pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Andrew Tate or Tristan Tate is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.