Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?
Probability
47¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$703.98
Liquidity
$21.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1592.9h
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 47¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 47¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 47¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 47¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 47¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 47¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 46¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 46¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 40¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).