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OtherExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?

Probability

59¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$812.03

Liquidity

$18.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+13.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 10:00Apr 25, 2026, 08:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1592.9h

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 69¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 68¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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