Will Hamburger SV qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
32¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-4.2pp
24h Vol
$297.97
Liquidity
$106.19
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 32¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3049h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 63.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3049.1h
- 22:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3049h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 32¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.4pp at 2d ago (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -3.8pp → 32¢
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 32¢
- 20:00 · -3.7pp → 32¢
- 19:00 · -3.8pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · -10.3pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -10.3pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -10.3pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -10.4pp → 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 0¢-47.9pp
Will Bayern Munich qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-52.4pp
Will Bayer Leverkusen qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $292.53
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Borussia Dortmund qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 8¢-36.5pp
Will RB Leipzig qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢+0.5pp
Will Eintracht Frankfurt qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-18.1pp
Will VfB Stuttgart qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-46.5pp
Will VfL Wolfsburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢+1.5pp
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-56.5pp
Pistons vs. Magic
Sports · Vol $5.3M
- 100¢+51.4pp
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $2.5M
- 73¢+19.0pp
Knicks vs. Hawks
Sports · Vol $2.2M
- 0¢0.0pp
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+52.4pp
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
Sports · Vol $1.5M
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (63.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.