Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 15¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 81h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.