Will "Takopi's Original Sin" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?
Probability
30¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$651.25
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 30¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 658h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 658.0h
- 13:58SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 658h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:58PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 25¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 25¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 26¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 26¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 33¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 34¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 25¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 25¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards are scheduled to occur in Japan on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed title that wins the Best New Series Award at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed title which comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards and the official Crunchyroll website (https://www.crunchyroll.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).