Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $40,750 (LOW) by April 30?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$361.15
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.8h
- 12:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 8¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 9¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 10¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (16.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).