Will the median home value in New York City be between $596,000 and $603,000 on April 30?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$68.83
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 44¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 103.9h
- 16:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 44¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 44¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 43¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 53¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 44¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 41¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 24¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 23¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 24¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 24¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 24¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 24¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 23¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 39¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/26)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).