Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,172,000 and $1,190,000 on April 30?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$95.76
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 18.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 100.2h
- 19:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+4.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -35.0pp at 06:00 (to 6¢).
Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -30.0pp → 10¢
- 17:00 · -34.0pp → 6¢
- 15:00 · -33.5pp → 6¢
- 14:00 · -27.5pp → 10¢
- 12:00 · -31.0pp → 10¢
- 11:00 · +3.0pp → 10¢
- 09:00 · -29.5pp → 10¢
- 08:00 · -29.0pp → 10¢
- 06:00 · -35.0pp → 6¢
- 04:00 · -31.0pp → 6¢
- 02:00 · -29.0pp → 11¢
- 00:00 · -6.0pp → 10¢
- 23:00 · -7.0pp → 6¢
- 21:00 · -4.5pp → 6¢
- 20:00 · -33.0pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -31.5pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -28.5pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -29.0pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -23.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -28.5pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -25.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -23.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -27.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -26.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -23.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -29.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · lowapp.parcllabs.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.