Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 20 - April 26 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$58.69
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 77.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Expiry in 10h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 9.7h
- 14:18SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 41¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 20, 2026 and April 26, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from April 20, 2026 to April 26, 2026 by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (77.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).