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OtherExpires May 1, 2026

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in April?

Probability

14¢

1h

-15.5pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$885.45

Liquidity

$3.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-10.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; -15.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 134h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 10.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 134.4h

    LOW
  • 13:36Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 134h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:35Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session as listed on Pyth will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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