Zealous-Passage
0xfb7490411705a1cbecb4d6c1a011c2e744a3ae29
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.8K
Total PnL
$-640.45
Realised
$10.52
Win rate
54%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
158 shares @ 12.5¢·now 35.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.78
$37.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
59 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$50.86
$0.88
- YES
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
83 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.12
$-1.25
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
174 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$40.84
$-2.61
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
51 shares @ 64.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.16
$7.45
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
44 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.53
$-0.44
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
42 shares @ 81.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.36
$5.43
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
55 shares @ 54.5¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$38.21
$8.22
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
48 shares @ 60.9¢·now 79.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.18
$9.01
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
307 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$37.90
$-2.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$3.00Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$5.09Jul 30, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$8.17Jul 30, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$21.04Jul 29, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$22.46Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.18Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$8.14Jul 29, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$6.04Jul 29, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$6.04Jul 29, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$6.19Jul 29, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?$10.38Jul 29, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$6.53Jul 29, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYHoward Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?$8.50Jul 29, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?$10.37Jul 29, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$10.00Jul 29, 05:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$10.31Jul 28, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?$10.66Jul 28, 10:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $8.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 18:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.