US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$8.0K
Liquidity
$54.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-17.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.6h
- 11:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5989h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 30¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 30¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 30¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 28¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 28¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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