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GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Probability

28¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$8.0K

Liquidity

$54.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-17.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 12:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:21
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5988.6h

    LOW
  • 11:21Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5989h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -15.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability down -16.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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