Will Ant Middleton not summit Everest by June 30?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 29pp over 24h

  Now 13¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 15.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Ant Middleton is scheduled to climb from Base Camp to the summit of Everest, beginning Monday, May 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the amount of time that it takes Ant Middleton to reach the summit. Middleton's climb will begin when the event's official timer begins, and considered completed when that timer marks its end point. If no timer is available, the climb will begin when he leaves Base Camp, and considered completed when he places a flag at the summit of Mt. Everest. If Ant Middleton reaches the summit and places the flag in a time that falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the longer time bracket. If Ant Middleton's summit attempt is canceled, postponed after June 30, 2026, abandoned before completion, or otherwise not completed within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Not Completed". The resolution source for this market will be the livestream of Middleton's climb (including footage of his stopwatch if available); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.