Will Chanelle Torrez win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $11.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 561.7h
- 14:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:18PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 14¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 14¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 15¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Idaho, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Idaho Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).