PoliticsExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$100.00

Liquidity

$3.4K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 26, 2026, 23:00 UTCJun 2, 2026, 22:18 UTC
updated 07:35:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-03T07-35Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 07:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • Jun 2, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 32h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 07:35:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:35:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventWho will advance from the California Governor primary?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

general election

Reason

Election markets are Politics.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?"?

As of Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:35:11 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$100.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket