Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Probability
60¢
1h
-9.5pp
24h
+10.0pp
24h Vol
$12.12
Liquidity
$25.86
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 8701.4h
- 10:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 8701h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:36PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.5pp
to 61¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 23, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (58.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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