Will Jane Dodds be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$95.39
Liquidity
$6.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 276.7h
- 11:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 277h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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