Will JD Vance be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?
Probability
37¢
1h
+3.5pp
24h
+23.2pp
24h Vol
$299.61
Liquidity
$604.55
Probability (last 7 days)
+26.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 23pp over 24h
Now 37¢; +3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 35.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 850.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 39¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.1pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.3pp
to 20¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 19¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.3pp
to 20¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.8pp
to 17¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.6pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.3pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.7pp
to 18¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.1pp
to 18¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 20¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.1pp
to 21¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.7pp
to 19¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.9pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.1pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.3pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.1pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.2pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.9pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.3pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.8pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.4pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.2pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.3pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.6pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed individual who hosts the first White House Press Briefing after Karoline Leavitt goes on leave. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Karoline Leavitt's leave is not announced, this market will resolve according to the next individual excepting Karoline Leavitt who hosts a White House Press Briefing as listed on the official schedule. If Karoline Leavitt does not go on leave, or if no White House Press Briefings occur between the beginning of Leavitt's leave and May 31, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, if Leavitt resigns or otherwise leaves her position, it will qualify as a leave. This market refers to White House press briefings by the acting White House Press Secretary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by the acting White House Press Secretary will qualify, even if the host is not formally announced as the acting or interim Press Secretary. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as the acting White House Press Secretary is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify. This market will resolve based on footage of the next White House Press Briefing that Karoline Leavitt does not host.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (35.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).