Will Luxembourg be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$7.00
Liquidity
$3.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 9¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 490.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 490h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 9¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 9¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 9¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).