Will Mike Ruoho be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Probability
1¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
-9.0pp
24h Vol
$0.32
Liquidity
$8.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2574h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $8.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2574.2h
- 17:45SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2574h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-5.3pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.4pp at 2d ago (to 8¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 16:00 · +3.3pp → 4¢
- 14:00 · -3.3pp → 1¢
- 12:00 · -7.1pp → 3¢
- 11:00 · -5.3pp → 2¢
- 09:00 · -3.2pp → 4¢
- 08:00 · -4.5pp → 3¢
- 18:00 · +3.9pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · +4.3pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · +3.2pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · +5.8pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · +4.8pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · +5.7pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · +4.8pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · +5.8pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 1¢
- 2d ago · +3.2pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · +7.4pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · +6.7pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · +6.6pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · +4.4pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · +3.9pp → 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 0¢0.0pp
Will Julia Coleman be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.32
- 1¢-0.3pp
Will Tom Weiler be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.32
- 1¢-0.3pp
Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.32
- 2¢-0.1pp
Will Christopher Brooks be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.32
- 84¢+6.5pp
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $906.87
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate K be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate M be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate O be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $643.7K
- 3¢+0.9pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $564.3K
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $530.4K
- 0¢+0.1pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $377.6K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $341.2K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $331.3K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.