Will the DHS shutdown end after July 31 2026?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$125.00
Liquidity
$12.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $12.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2315.1h
- 12:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).