Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
+6.7pp
24h Vol
$725.52
Liquidity
$14.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 11¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2315.2h
- 12:50SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 11¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 11¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 10¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).