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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 31, 2026

Will the DHS shutdown end between May 11-17 2026?

Probability

11¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

+6.7pp

24h Vol

$725.52

Liquidity

$14.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 7pp over 24h

    Now 11¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 5.1¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2315.2h

    LOW
  • 12:50Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 2315h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 6.7pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 6.6pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 7.1pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 04:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.6pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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