Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
Probability
77¢
1h
-3.5pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$161.16
Liquidity
$6.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 77¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 441h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 440.8h
- 15:09SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 441h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 76¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 80¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 71¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 80¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 81¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 82¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 82¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 81¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 68¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 73¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 78¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 77¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 84¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 83¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 81¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 91¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.5pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.0pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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