Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
Probability
91¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$3.6K
Liquidity
$12.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 91¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 441h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 440.8h
- 15:11SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 441h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 91¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.6pp
to 91¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 81¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 80¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 80¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 95¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 95¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 96¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 95¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 82¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 76¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 77¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 82¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).