Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

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According to YouGov's most recent data point, the percentage of all adults who think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister was 21% as of March 23, 2026 (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published. This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.