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GeopoliticsExpires Aug 31, 2026

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?

Probability

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-42.4pp

24h Vol

$560.05

Liquidity

$500.11

Probability (last 7 days)

-48.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 42pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3056h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $500 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3055.9h

    LOW
  • 16:06Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 3056h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -42.3pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -41.9pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -41.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -41.9pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -41.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -41.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -41.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -32.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -15.8pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -5.1pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.6pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.1pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBundesliga: Team to qualify for UEFA Conference League
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Aug 31, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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