Will Craig Haggard be the Republican nominee for IN-04?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 228.8h
- 11:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 229h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 5¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.3pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 6¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 5¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 5¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.1pp
to 6¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.2pp
to 5¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.6pp
to 5¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).