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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade go live on mainnet by June 30?

Probability

86¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:49
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 24.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6013.2h

    LOW
  • 15:49Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -10.4pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -8.9pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -8.7pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -7.2pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -8.9pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -9.9pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -6.2pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -6.9pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -6.8pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -6.9pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -9.2pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.1pp

    to 87¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.7pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.2pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.1pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.7pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.3pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.9pp

    to 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.6pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.1pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.7pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 upgrade goes live on mainnet by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be Hyperliquid, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (24.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).