Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5981.9h
- 18:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.5pp at 2d ago (to 15¢).
Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
- 05:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 03:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 02:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 00:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 22:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 20:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 3d ago · -3.0pp → 14¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.