Will the DHS shutdown end between May 18-24 2026?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+13.0pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$17.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+19.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 32¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2312h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $17.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2311.8h
- 16:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2312h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 32¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 33¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 33¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 33¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 32¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).