Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.8pp
24h Vol
$230.62
Liquidity
$1.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 124h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 124.3h
- 19:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 124h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.7pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.3pp at 2d ago (to 4¢).
Show all 7 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -8.7pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -14.9pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -10.7pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -13.9pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -24.3pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -22.8pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowhitsdailydouble.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.