Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between 200k and 225k?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-21.5pp
24h Vol
$31.65
Liquidity
$789.44
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $789 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 126.1h
- 17:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 126h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-21.5pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: +30.0pp at 20:00 (to 39¢).
Show all 34 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -5.5pp → 3¢
- 16:00 · -5.6pp → 3¢
- 15:00 · -5.6pp → 3¢
- 13:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 12:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 10:00 · +3.5pp → 12¢
- 09:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 08:00 · +4.0pp → 13¢
- 06:00 · +4.5pp → 14¢
- 05:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 03:00 · +3.0pp → 12¢
- 02:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 00:00 · +5.0pp → 14¢
- 22:00 · +7.0pp → 16¢
- 20:00 · +30.0pp → 39¢
- 18:00 · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +15.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +10.5pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +9.5pp → 20¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · +6.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 20¢
- 2d ago · +13.0pp → 23¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowhitsdailydouble.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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