Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Probability
15¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-12.3pp
24h Vol
$14.68
Liquidity
$245.31
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 15¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 25.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1566h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-10.7pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.8pp at 2d ago (to 29¢).
Show all 29 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -15.4pp → 15¢
- 15:00 · -18.4pp → 15¢
- 14:00 · -15.8pp → 15¢
- 12:00 · -14.6pp → 15¢
- 11:00 · -16.9pp → 15¢
- 09:00 · -17.3pp → 15¢
- 08:00 · -14.9pp → 15¢
- 06:00 · -13.2pp → 15¢
- 05:00 · -13.5pp → 15¢
- 03:00 · -11.9pp → 15¢
- 02:00 · -11.9pp → 15¢
- 00:00 · +6.7pp → 34¢
- 22:00 · -3.0pp → 27¢
- 20:00 · -3.3pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · +8.4pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · +5.4pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · +4.2pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · +9.6pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +6.2pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +5.7pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +3.8pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -6.8pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +23.3pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +21.9pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +19.3pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +24.8pp → 29¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7Ambiguous wordingextracted · lowearthquake.usgs.gov
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (25.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.