Will Trump post "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" on Truth Social this week?
Probability
27¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-14.0pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$50.42
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 15.4h
- 08:34SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 15h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 28¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 42¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 44¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 39¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 45¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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