Will Tesla reach $435 in April?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+13.1pp
24h Vol
$115.96
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 16¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 134h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 30.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 134.5h
- 13:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 134h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:32PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 16¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.4pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.4pp
to 3¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 3¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.6pp
to 2¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 2¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 2¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.1pp
to 2¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 2¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.9pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 4¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (30.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).