Grizzled-Birthday
0xb0f1f2684e8f42a24e7b73068788da4901f09f29
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
32
Open notional
$113.69
Total PnL
$-46.30
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$14.48
$9.48
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.43
$0.43
- NO
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.36
$0.36
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.17
$0.17
- NO
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.16
$0.16
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.15
$0.15
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.86
$-0.14
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?
20 shares @ 24.6¢·now 23.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$4.78
$-0.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?$5.13Jul 16, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$5.16Jul 9, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?$0.00Jul 7, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$5.15Jul 7, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMTrump's face on US gold coin by July 4?$9.26Jul 5, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMNocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?$8.62Jul 4, 09:27 UTC
- REDEEMKim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?$8.17Jul 3, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$18.52Jul 2, 13:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?$37.43Jul 1, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$19.40Jul 1, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMKash Patel out by June 30?$10.87Jul 1, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?$8.33Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMSCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?$32.39Jun 29, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$0.00Jun 29, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.00Jun 26, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?$0.00Jun 25, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?$51.39Jun 17, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?$5.15Jun 17, 02:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$0.00Jun 10, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?$5.16Jun 10, 19:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $6.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 23:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.