Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in April?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $12.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.