Will David Valadao advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Probability
93¢
1h
-0.9pp
24h
-1.1pp
24h Vol
$36.00
Liquidity
$903.24
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 903.5h
- 08:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 903h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.8pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.9pp
to 95¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 88¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 91¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 93¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 93¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California'sAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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